U.S. forces to move to Afghan support role in spring: Obama

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Afghan President Hamid Karzai agreed on Friday to speed up the handover of combat operations in Afghanistan to Afghan forces this year, underscoring Obama's determination to move decisively to wind down the long, unpopular war.

Signaling a narrowing of differences, Karzai appeared to give ground in White House talks on U.S. demands for immunity from prosecution for any U.S. troops who stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014, a concession that could allow Obama to keep at least a small residual force there.

Both leaders also threw their support behind tentative Afghan reconciliation efforts with Taliban insurgents. They each voiced support for the establishment of a Taliban political office in the Gulf state of Qatar in hopes of bringing insurgents to inter-Afghan talks.

Karzai's visit, which follows a year of growing strains in U.S.-Afghan ties, comes amid stepped-up deliberations in Washington over the size and scope of the U.S. military role in Afghanistan once the NATO-led combat mission concludes at the end of next year.

The Obama administration has been considering a residual force of between 3,000 and 9,000 troops in Afghanistan to conduct counterterrorism operations while providing training and assistance for Afghan forces.

But a top Obama aide said this week that the administration does not rule out a complete withdrawal after 2014, a move that some experts say would be disastrous for the still-fragile Afghan government and its fledgling security apparatus.

Saying that Afghan forces were being trained and were "stepping up" faster than expected, Obama said Afghan troops would take over the lead in combat missions across the country this spring, rather than waiting until the summer, as was originally planned.

"Starting this spring, our troops will have a different mission: training, advising, assisting Afghan forces," Obama said. "It will be a historic moment and another step toward full Afghan sovereignty."

There are some 66,000 U.S. troops currently in Afghanistan. NATO allies have also been steadily reducing their troop numbers there with the aim of ending the foreign combat role in 2014, despite doubts about the ability of Afghan forces to shoulder full responsibility for security.

Obama said final decisions on this year's troop reductions and the post-2014 U.S. military role were still months away, but his comments raised the prospects of an accelerated withdrawal timetable as the security transition proceeds.

Precisely how much of an acceleration was unclear.

For his part, Karzai voiced satisfaction over Obama's agreement to turn over control of detention centers to Afghan authorities, a source of dispute between their countries.

The two leaders, who have had a tense relationship in the past, stood side by side in the White House East Room, nodding occasionally as the other spoke.

Obama once called Afghanistan a "war of necessity," but he is heading into a second term looking for an orderly way out of the conflict, which was sparked by the September 11, 2001 attacks by al Qaeda on the United States.

(Additional reporting by David Alexander; Editing by Warren Strobel and David Brunnstrom)

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Wall Street climbs on China data; S&P nears resistance

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks climbed on Thursday on optimism about global growth spurred by stronger-than-expected exports in China, the world's second-biggest economy, and the S&P 500 hovered around a five-year high.

Financial and energy stocks were the day's top gainers in afternoon trading. The financial sector index <.gspf> rose 1 percent and the energy sector <.gspe> was up 0.7 percent.

Financials benefited from events this week that added clarity to mortgage rules and banks' potential exposure to the housing market.

The government's consumer finance watchdog announced mortgage rules on Thursday that will force banks to use new criteria to determine whether a borrower can repay a home loan.

Earlier this week, several big mortgage lenders reached a deal with regulators to end a review of foreclosures mandated by the government.

Bank of America gained 2.6 percent to $11.73, while Morgan Stanley was up 3.2 percent at $20.24, one day after sources said the bank plans to cut jobs.

"It's a resolution. It's not hanging over their heads," said Kurt Brunner, portfolio manager at Swarthmore Group in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Data showed China's export growth rebounded sharply to a seven-month high in December, a strong finish to the year after seven straight quarters of slowdown.

"In and of itself it is being interpreted positively that they've stopped the downturn (in growth)," said Brunner. "If they continue to produce good growth, that's going to be supportive of our global manufacturers."

The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index hovered near a five-year closing peak of 1,466.47. On Friday, the index had closed at its highest since December 2007.

"The market is technically right at the level of resistance, near 1,465-1,467," said Randy Frederick, managing director of active trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

"A solid breakthrough above the level would be the start of a next leg higher, but it looks like it is going to be difficult to break above that level for now," Frederick said, citing concerns about the corporate earnings season and impending negotiations over the U.S. debt ceiling.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 40.53 points, or 0.30 percent, to 13,431.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> rose 5.41 points, or 0.37 percent, to 1,466.43. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> edged up 0.42 points, or 0.01 percent, at 3,106.23.

Thursday's session had earlier included a dip that traders said was triggered by a trade in the options market that prompted a large amount of S&P futures to hit the market at the same time. That sent the S&P 500 index down rapidly but those losses were recouped by late afternoon.

Shares of upscale jeweler Tiffany dropped 5.1 percent to $60.02 after it said sales were flat during the holidays.

Herbalife Ltd stepped up its defense against activist investor Bill Ackman, stressing it was a legitimate company with a mission to improve nutrition and help public health. The stock was down 3 percent at $38.75.

(Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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NFL star Junior Seau suffered from brain disease

Junior Seau, one of the NFL's best and fiercest players for two decades, suffered from a degenerative brain disease often associated with repeated blows to the head when he committed suicide last May, the National Institutes of Health said in a study released Thursday.

The NIH, based in Bethesda, Md., said Seau's brain revealed abnormalities consistent with chronic traumatic encephalopathy or CTE. It said that the study included unidentified brains, one of which was Seau's, and that the findings on Seau were similar to autopsies of people "with exposure to repetitive head injuries."

Seau's family requested the analysis of his brain.

The 43-year-old star linebacker played for 20 NFL seasons with San Diego, Miami and New England before retiring in 2009. He died of a self-inflicted shotgun wound.

He joins a list of several dozen football players who were found to have CTE. Boston University's center for study of the disease reported last month that 34 former pro players and nine who played only college football suffered from CTE.

"I was not surprised after learning a little about CTE that he had it," Seau's 23-year-old son Tyler said. "He did play so many years at that level. I was more just kind of angry I didn't do something more and have the awareness to help him more, and now it is too late.

"I don't think any of us were aware of the side effects that could be going on with head trauma until he passed away. We didn't know his behavior was from head trauma."

That behavior, according to Tyler Seau and Junior's ex-wife Gina, included wild mood swings, irrationality, forgetfulness, insomnia and depression.

The NFL faces lawsuits by thousands of former players who say the league withheld information on the harmful effects of concussions. According to an AP review of 175 lawsuits, 3,818 players have sued. At least 26 Hall of Famer members are among the players who have done so.

Seau is not the first former NFL player who killed himself, then was found to have CTE. Dave Duerson and Ray Easterling are the others.

"He emotionally detached himself and would kind of 'go away' for a little bit," Tyler Seau said. "And then the depression and things like that. It started to progressively get worse."

He hid it well in public, they said. But not when he was with family or close friends.

Dr. Russell Lonser, who oversaw the study, said Seau's brain was "independently evaluated by multiple experts, in a blind fashion."

"We had the opportunity to get multiple experts involved in a way they wouldn't be able to directly identify his tissue even if they knew he was one of the individuals studied," he said.

The National Football League, in an email to the AP, said: "We appreciate the Seau family's cooperation with the National Institutes of Health. The finding underscores the recognized need for additional research to accelerate a fuller understanding of CTE.

"The NFL, both directly and in partnership with the NIH, Centers for Disease Control and other leading organizations, is committed to supporting a wide range of independent medical and scientific research that will both address CTE and promote the long-term health and safety of athletes at all levels."

NFL teams have given a $30 million research grant to the NIH.

Before shooting himself, Duerson, a former Chicago Bears defensive back, left a note asking that his brain be studied for signs of trauma. His family filed a wrongful-death suit against the NFL, claiming the league didn't do enough to prevent or treat the concussions that severely damaged his brain.

Easterling played safety for the Falcons in the 1970s. After his career, he suffered from dementia, depression and insomnia, according to his wife, Mary Ann. He committed suicide last April.

Mary Ann Easterling is among the plaintiffs who have sued the NFL.

"It was important to us to get to the bottom of this, the truth," Gina Seau said, "and now that it has been conclusively determined from every expert that he had obviously had it, CTE, we just hope it is taken more seriously.

"You can't deny it exists, and it is hard to deny there is a link between head trauma and CTE. There's such strong evidence correlating head trauma and collisions and CTE."

Tyler Seau played football through high school and for two years in college. He says he has no symptoms of brain trauma.

Gina Seau's son Jake, now a high school junior, played football for two seasons but has switched to lacrosse and has been recruited to play at Duke.

"Lacrosse is really his sport and what he is passionate about," she said. "He is a good football player and probably could continue. But especially now watching what his dad went through, he says, 'Why would I risk lacrosse for football?'

"I didn't have to have a discussion with him after we saw what Junior went through."

Her 12-year-old son, Hunter, has shown no interest in playing football.

"That's fine with me," she said.

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Killer Whales May Have Been Trapped by Climate Change

Whale lovers around the world held their breath as a family of orcas, trapped in the ice of Canada’s frozen Hudson Bay, were left with an ever-shrinking opening in the icy surface as their only breathing hole.

The two adult killer whales and nine younger orcas have now been freed by an apparent shift in the sea ice that trapped them, according to NBC News. It’s believed that a change in the current within the bay broke open a path to the sea. 

“When there is a new moon, the water current is activated. … It caused an open passage out to the open water,” Petah Inukpuk, mayor of the nearby village of Inukjuak, told NBC News.

But what caused the pod of orcas to become trapped in the first place? Increasingly, experts are blaming climate change, which gave the orcas access to a place they normally abandon before winter. The trapped orcas were featured in a riveting online video, struggling for air inside an icy tomb that threatened to grow smaller with each passing hour. [Images: Rescuing Killer Whales]

In the past, the Arctic was covered with too much ice to make it hospitable for the killer whales, which prefer to live and hunt in open seas.

“The reason they can now access the Arctic is because there is a lot less ice because of global warming,” Andrew Trites, director of the marine mammal research unit at the University of British Columbia, told the Toronto Star.

In fact, the Arctic sea-ice extent, or the area of ocean with at least 15 percent ice cover reached a new record low in September, dwindling to 1.32 million square miles (3.41 million square kilometers), according to the U.S. National Snow & Ice Data Center, which tracks sea ice with satellite data. As for the reason behind the ice melt, scientists have blamed both natural fluctuations and human-caused global warming.

This incident may be the first time killer whales have been seen in the region as late as January, Christian Ramp, a researcher with the Quebec-based Mingan Island Cetacean Study, told the Canadian Broadcasting Corp.

“It seems the ice dynamics are changing very quickly,” said Ramp. Orcas generally hunt in the area during the summer months, then head to warmer waters before the Arctic ice moves in. But with climate change, Ramp said, the animals appear to be straying farther north and staying too late, the CBC reported.

According to Inukpuk, that region of the Hudson Bay typically would be completely frozen over by Halloween, according to the Star. But this year the bay didn’t freeze until well after Christmas.

This isn’t the first time the world has been transfixed by the plight of sea mammals. In 2005, a pod of six killer whales was trapped by sea ice in the shallow waters off Russia’s eastern shore. Despite the efforts of local villagers, the animals — injured and bleeding from their own desperate attempts to free themselves — eventually died, according to the Associated Press.

And in 1988, there was an international effort to help three young gray whales trapped in the ice off Barrow, Alaska. Again, the locals responded to the animals’ plight with chain saws, generators and water pumps, but in the brutal cold the sea froze over almost as quickly as it was opened up. One whale eventually died.

Finally, in a remarkable act of Cold War cooperation, a Soviet icebreaker succeeded in cutting a clear channel to the open ocean, freeing the two surviving whales. That incident was the basis for “Big Miracle,” a film starring Drew Barrymore.

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Wife of poisoned lottery winner: 'No one would dare kill him'

The wife of Urooj Khan – the million-dollar lottery winner who died of cyanide poisoning – said today that Chicago police detectives had questioned her about the ingredients she used in preparing her husband’s last meal.

Khan’s wife, Shabana Ansari, said she also believed that police had seized food from the family home during a search after toxicological tests showed her husband had died from lethal levels of cyanide.

Ansari and her father, Fareedun, said that both of them as well as Khan’s daughter shared a lamb curry meal with Khan on the night he died last July.

Shabana Ansari said she is having a hard time believing that anyone would poison her husband.

“He was such a nice person,” she said. “No one would dare kill him.”

Fareedun Ansari, who identified himself as both Khan’s uncle and father-in-law, said he was present when Khan scratched off the million-dollar winning ticket last summer, weeks before his death. He said he was thrilled for him to win.

“He told me: ‘Uncle, I win everything. Now I don’t have any more dues (debts),’” Fareedun Ansari said. “I was happy. I was happy.”

Asked about the death of his son-in-law, Fareedun Ansari said, “I’m terribly sad, terribly sad.”

Shabana Ansari made a reference to a probate court fight over the lottery winnings when she was asked if the million dollars led to fighting in the family.
 
“Not exactly a fight,” she said.

When a reporter pointed out that Khan’s brother, in court papers, had voiced concern that Khan’s teenage daughter from a previous marriage share in the lottery winnings, Shabana Ansari said she fully intended to be sure her stepdaughter was not left out of the inheritance.

“How would I do such an injustice?” said Ansari, who was married to Khan for 12 years. “I was taking care of her all these years.”

asweeney@tribune.com

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String of bombings kill 101, injure 200 in Pakistan

QUETTA, Pakistan (Reuters) - At least 101 people were killed in bombings in two Pakistani cities on Thursday in one of the country's bloodiest days in recent years, officials said, with most casualties caused by sectarian attacks in Quetta.

The bombings underscored the myriad threats Pakistani security forces face from homegrown Sunni extremist groups, the Taliban insurgency in the northwest and the less well-known Baloch insurgency in the southwest.

On Thursday evening, two coordinated explosions killed at least 69 people and injured more than 100 in Quetta, the provincial capital of Balochistan, said Deputy Inspector of Police Hamid Shakil.

The first attack, in a crowded snooker hall, was a suicide bombing, local residents said. About ten minutes later, a car bomb exploded, they said. Five policemen and a cameraman were among the dead from that blast.

The attacks happened in a predominately Shia neighborhood and banned sectarian group Lashkar-e-Jhangvi claimed responsibility. The extremist Sunni group targets Shias, who make up about 20 percent of Pakistani's population.

Targeted killings and bombings of Shia communities are common in Pakistan, and rights groups say hundreds of Shia were killed last year. Militant groups in Balochistan frequently bomb or shoot Shia passengers on buses travelling to neighboring Iran.

The killers are rarely caught and some Shia activists say militants work alongside elements of Pakistan's security forces, who see them as a potential bulwark against neighboring India.

Many Pakistanis fear their nation could become the site of a regional power struggle between Saudi Arabia, source of funding for Sunni extremist groups, and Iran, which is largely Shia.

But sectarian tensions are not the only source of violence.

The United Baloch Army claimed responsibility for a blast in Quetta's market earlier in the day. It killed 11 people and injured more than 40, mostly vegetable sellers and secondhand clothes dealers, police officer Zubair Mehmood said. A child was also killed.

The group is one of several fighting for independence for Balochistan, an arid, impoverished region with substantial gas, copper and gold reserves, which constitutes just under half of Pakistan's territory and is home to about 8 million of the country's population of 180 million.

SWAT BOMBING

In another incident Thursday, 21 were killed and more than 60 injured in a bombing when people gathered to hear a religious leader speak in Mingora, the largest city in the northwestern province of Swat, police and officials at the Saidu Sharif hospital said.

"The death toll may rise as some of the injured are in critical condition and we are receiving more and more injured people," said Dr. Niaz Mohammad.

It has been more than two years since a militant attack has claimed that many lives in Swat.

The mountainous region, formerly a tourist destination, has been administered by the Pakistani army since their 2009 offensive drove out Taliban militants who had taken control.

But Talibans retain the ability to attack in Swat and shot schoolgirl campaigner Malala Yousufzai in Mingora last October.

A Taliban spokesman said they were not responsible for Thursday's bombing.

(Additional reporting by Jibran Ahmad in Peshawar, Pakistan; Writing by Katharine Houreld; Editing by Mark Heinrich and Jason Webb)

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Wall Street ends with slim gains on Alcoa results

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose on Wednesday, as the first group of earnings reports started to trickle in. While Alcoa Inc gave a bullish demand outlook, the results didn't give a clear direction of how well corporations did during the fourth quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was up 61.97 points, or 0.46 percent, at 13,390.82. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 3.84 points, or 0.26 percent, at 1,460.99. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 14.00 points, or 0.45 percent, at 3,105.81.

(Reporting by Ryan Vlastelica; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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Bonds, Clemens rejected; no one elected to BB Hall

NEW YORK (AP) — Steroid-tainted stars Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa were denied entry to baseball's Hall of Fame, with voters failing to elect any candidates for only the second time in four decades.

In a vote that keeps the game's career home run leader and one of its greatest pitchers out of Cooperstown — at least for now — Bonds received just 36.2 percent of the vote and Clemens 37.6 in totals announced Wednesday by the Hall and the Baseball Writers' Association of America, both well short of the 75 percent necessary. Sosa, eighth on the career home run list, got 12.5 percent.

"Curt Schilling made a good point, everyone was guilty. Either you used PEDs, or you did nothing to stop their use," Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt said in an email to The Associated Press. "This generation got rich. Seems there was a price to pay."

Bonds, Clemens and Sosa were eligible for the first time and have up to 14 more years on the writers' ballot to gain baseball's highest honor.

"After what has been written and said over the last few years I'm not overly surprised," Clemens said in a statement he posted on Twitter.

Craig Biggio, 20th on the career list with 3,060 hits, topped the 37 candidates with 68.2 percent of the 569 ballots, 39 shy of election. Among other first-year eligibles, Mike Piazza received 57.8 percent and Schilling 38.8.

Jack Morris led holdovers with 67.7 percent. He will make his final ballot appearance next year, when fellow pitchers Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine along with slugger Frank Thomas are eligible for the first time.

Two-time NL MVP Dale Murphy received 18.6 percent in his 15th and final appearance.

"With 53 percent you can get to the White House, but you can't get to Cooperstown," BBWAA secretary-treasurer Jack O'Connell said. "It's the 75 percent that makes it difficult."

It was the eighth time the BBWAA failed to elect any players. There were four fewer votes than last year and five members submitted blank ballots.

"It's a tough period for evaluation, that's what this chalks up to," Hall President Jeff Idelson said. "Honestly, I think that any group you put this to would have the same issues. ... There's always going to be discussion and concern about players who didn't get in, but at the end of the day it's a process and again, a snapshot in time isn't one year, it's 15 with this exercise."

Bonds, baseball's only seven-time Most Valuable Player, hit 762 home runs, including a record 73 in 2001.

"It is unimaginable that the best player to ever play the game would not be a unanimous first-ballot selection," said Jeff Borris of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, Bonds' longtime agent.

Clemens, the only seven-time Cy Young Award winner, is third in career strikeouts and ninth in wins.

"To those who did take the time to look at the facts," Clemens said, "we very much appreciate it."

Since 1961, the only years the writers didn't elect a candidate were when Yogi Berra topped the 1971 vote by appearing on 67 percent of the ballots cast and when Phil Niekro headed the 1996 ballot at 68 percent. Both were chosen the following years when they achieved the 75 percent necessary for election.

The other BBWAA elections without a winner were in 1945, 1946, 1950, 1958 and 1960.

"Next year, I think you'll have a rather large class and this year, for whatever reasons, you had a couple of guys come really close," Commissioner Bud Selig said at the owners' meetings in Paradise Valley, Ariz. "This is not to be voted to make sure that somebody gets in every year. It's to be voted on to make sure that they're deserving. I respect the writers as well as the Hall itself. This idea that this somehow diminishes the Hall of baseball is just ridiculous in my opinion."

Players' union head Michael Weiner called the vote "unfortunate, if not sad."

"To ignore the historic accomplishments of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, for example, is hard to justify. Moreover, to penalize players exonerated in legal proceedings — and others never even implicated — is simply unfair. The Hall of Fame is supposed to be for the best players to have ever played the game. Several such players were denied access to the Hall today. Hopefully this will be rectified by future voting."

Three inductees were chosen last month by the 16-member panel considering individuals from the era before integration in 1947: Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert, umpire Hank O'Day and barehanded catcher Deacon White. They will be enshrined during a ceremony in Cooperstown on July 28, when the Hall also will honor Lou Gehrig and Rogers Hornsby among a dozen players who never received formal inductions because of restrictions during World War II.

Bonds has denied knowingly using performance-enhancing drugs and was convicted of one count of obstruction of justice for giving an evasive answer in 2003 to a grand jury investigating PEDs. Clemens was acquitted of perjury charges stemming from congressional testimony during which he denied using PEDs.

Sosa, who finished with 609 home runs, was among those who tested positive in MLB's 2003 anonymous survey, The New York Times reported in 2009. He told a congressional committee in 2005 that he never took illegal performance-enhancing drugs.

The BBWAA election rules say "voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

An Associated Press survey of 112 eligible voters conducted in late November after the ballot was announced indicated Bonds, Clemens and Sosa would fall well short of 50 percent. The big three drew even less support than that as the debate raged over who was Hall worthy.

Voters are writers who have been members of the BBWAA for 10 consecutive years at any point.

BBWAA president Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle said she didn't vote for Bonds, Clemens or Sosa.

"The evidence for steroid use is too strong," she said.

As for Biggio, "I'm surprised he didn't get in."

MLB.com's Hal Bodley, the former baseball columnist for USA Today, said Biggio and others paid the price for other players using PEDs.

"They got caught in the undertow of the steroids thing," he said.

Bodley said this BBWAA vote was a "loud and clear" message on the steroids issue. He said he couldn't envision himself voting for stars linked to drugs.

"We've a forgiving society, I know that," he said. "But I have too great a passion for the sport."

Mark McGwire, 10th on the career home run list, received 16.9 percent on his seventh try, down from 19.5 last year. He received 23.7 percent in 2010 — a vote before he admitted using steroids and human growth hormone.

Rafael Palmeiro, among just four players with 500 homers and 3,000 hits along with Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray, received 8.8 percent in his third try, down from 12.6 percent last year. Palmeiro received a 10-day suspension in 2005 for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs, claiming it was due to a vitamin vial given to him by teammate Miguel Tejada.

While there are exhibits about the Steroids Era at the Hall, the plaque room will remain without Bonds and Clemens, who join career hits leader Pete Rose on the outside looking in. There were four write-in votes for Rose, who never appeared on the ballot because of his lifetime ban that followed an investigation of his gambling while manager of the Cincinnati Reds.

Morris increased slightly from his 66.7 percent last year, when Barry Larkin was elected. Morris could become the player with the highest-percentage of the vote who is not in the Hall, a mark currently held by Gil Hodges at 63 percent in 1983.

Several players who fell just short in the BBWAA balloting later were elected by either the Veterans Committee or Old-Timers' Committee: Nellie Fox (74.7 percent on the 1985 BBWAA ballot), Jim Bunning (74.2 percent in 1988), Orlando Cepeda (73.6 percent in 1994) and Frank Chance (72.5 percent in 1945).

The ace of three World Series winners, Morris had 254 victories and was the winningest pitcher of the 1980s. His 3.90 ERA, however, is higher than that of any Hall of Famer.

___

AP Sports Writers Mike Fitzpatrick, John Marshall and Ben Walker contributed to this report.

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Dazzling Comet of 2013 May Be Among Brightest Ever Seen

Excitement continues to rise among both professional and amateur astronomers about Comet ISON, which on Nov. 28 of this year might become one of the brightest comets ever seen, outshining such recent dazzlers as Comet Hale-Bopp (1997) and Comet McNaught (2007). 

Fortunately, Comet ISON was discovered 14 months before this perihelion passage — its closest point to the sun — while still distant and faint, thus giving observers time to plan. Another major advantage is that this fine object will be favorably placed for viewing, first in the morning sky before perihelion passage on Nov. 28, and then both in the morning and evening sky afterward.

Comet ISON was discovered photographically last Sep. 21 by Russians Vitali Nevski and Artyom Novichonok, who detected it using a 15.7-inch (0.4 meters) reflecting telescope of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) which is located near Kislovodsk at the northern foot of the Caucasus range in Russia.

Subsequently, pre-discovery images dating back to December 2011 were found by the Mount Lemmon Survey in Arizona and by the Panoramic Survey Telescope and Rapid Response System (PANSTARRS) in Hawaii from January 2012. ISON’s discovery was announced by the Minor Planet Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts on Sep. 24; it’s officially catalogued as C/2012 S1. [Spectacular Comet Photos (Gallery)]

Still far out

When first sighted, this very faint and distant comet was 625 million miles (1 billion kilometers) from Earth and 584 million miles (939 million km) from the sun, within the zodiacal constellation of Cancer (The Crab).

It was then shining at magnitude 18.8 on the scale used by astronomers to measure the brightness of sky objects (the lower the number, the brighter the object). That made the comet about 100,000 times fainter than the dimmest star that can be seen with the unaided eye.  

Currently, the comet is among the stars of Gemini (The Twins) and will pass only about a half-degree south of the bright star Castor on Jan. 16. But it’s still very faint and distant at 474 million miles (762 million km) from the sun, tucked just inside the orbit of Jupiter.

Grazingly close, dazzlingly bright?

According to astronomer Gareth Williams at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, improved orbital elements based on 1,000 observations from Dec. 28, 2011 through Dec. 24, 2012 continue to show that Comet ISON will pass through the perihelion point of its orbit on Nov. 28 at 3:10 p.m. Eastern time . 

At that moment, the comet will be describing a hairpin curve while whipping around the sun at a speed of 425,000 mph (684,000 kph). It will be just 732,000 miles (1.18 million km) above the sun’s blazing photosphere, literally grazing the solar surface. 

Just how bright the comet will become at that moment cannot yet be forecast reliably. In his 2013 Astronomical Calendar, Guy Ottewell writes: “Using what formulas we can for magnitude, we have it reaching -12.6, the brightness of the full moon!” [Gallery: Photos of 2012's 'Supermoon']

If this is correct, it might result in the view of a lifetime: A bright comet with a stubby silvery tail visible next to the sun in broad daylight, visible to the naked eye simply by screening the sun with an outstretched hand. 

Ottewell imagines the comet as possibly resembling “. . . a lighted match at the sun’s edge.” Only on nine other occasions dating back to the late 17th century has a comet become bright enough to be seen in the daytime.

Mark your calendars!

As it approaches the sun, Comet ISON will pass just 6.5 million miles (10.5 million km) from Mars on Oct. 1, perhaps providing a worthy target for imaging by the NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity. 

ISON will take exactly one month to cross from the orbit of Mars to the orbit of Earth, reaching us on Nov. 1. The comet will be steadily brightening during this time from magnitude +10 to +6. It will be in the morning sky, and during the first half of the month will be keeping pace just to the north of Mars as the pair slides eastward in the sky through the stars of Leo (The Lion).

On Oct. 14 and 15, Mars and ISON will line up closely with Leo’s brightest star, the blue first-magnitude Regulus. By the end of October, the comet should be easily visible in binoculars and quite possibly even with the unaided eye.

During November, as the comet races toward its rendezvous with the sun, it should brighten dramatically as it drops lower in the dawn twilight. A tail may begin to appear at this time, perhaps becoming noticeably longer with each passing morning. 

On the morning of Nov. 18, ISON — now possibly as bright as 3rd magnitude — will stand less than 1 degree from the first-magnitude star Spica in the constellation Virgo. (Your outstretched fist held at arm’s length measures about 10 degrees.)

Five days later, the comet will shine perhaps as brightly as zero magnitude as it zips past the similarly bright planets Mercury and Saturn. 

Finally, the comet will arrive at the sun on the Nov. 28. ISON will pass through the inner corona of the sun, experiencing temperatures of up to 2 million degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 million degrees Celsius)

Having been in a cosmic deep freeze for countless thousands of years, ISON will suddenly be subjected to unbelievable heat. Perhaps the comet’s nucleus will shatter, as sometimes happens when you pour hot tea into a cold cup.

But this is not a certainty; some sungrazers like the Great Comet of 1882 and Comet Ikeya Seki in 1965 indeed broke into several fragments and headed back out into deep space literally in shambles. Others like Comet Lovejoy in 2011 somehow emerged from out of the solar furnace still pretty much in one piece. [Photos: Comet Lovejoy's Dive Through the Sun]

A spectacle at dusk and dawn        

If it does survive, Comet ISON will rapidly sweep around the sun and will then head north, becoming a spectacle both at dusk and dawn. The head of the comet will gradually fade in the days and weeks after its exceedingly close brush with the sun, but its potential daylight apparition might only serve as a prelude to an even more spectacular show. 

As ISON slows its course and recedes back out into space, the comet will now be buffeted at close range by the solar wind, driving particles from the comet’s head (called the coma) out into a long stream preceding the comet. 

The result? A tail, stretching perhaps for tens of millions of miles, might protrude from above the horizon like some ghostly searchlight beam. And while it will be moving away from the sun, ISON will now be approaching Earth, passing closest to us on the day after Christmas, vaulting over our planet at a distance of 39.6 million miles (63.7 million km). 

By then the comet will be a circumpolar object for those in north temperate latitudes, neither rising nor setting, but instead remaining perpetually above the horizon all through the night!

Sizzler or fizzler?

One reason for the great excitement surrounding Comet ISON is the fact that its orbit is rather similar to the Great Comet of 1680, begging the question of whether both objects are one and the same or at the very least somehow related. 

Discovered on Nov. 14, 1680 by German astronomer Gottfried Kirsch, this was the first comet ever discovered by telescope. By Dec. 4, the comet was visible at magnitude +2 with a tail 15° long. On Dec. 18 it arrived at perihelion at a distance of 312,000 miles (502,000 km) above the sun’s surface.

A report from Albany, N.Y., indicated that the comet could be glimpsed in daylight passing above the sun. In late December of 1680, it reappeared in the western evening sky, again at magnitude +2, and displaying a long tail that resembled a narrow beam of light that stretched for at least 70 degrees — more than one-third of the way across the sky. The comet faded from naked-eye visibility by early February 1681. 

But now a word of caution: Some comets are notoriously fickle actors, and occasionally the actual performance falls far short of what had been scripted.

Those of a certain age might remember Comet Kohoutek in 1973. Like ISON, it was discovered when still remarkably far from the sun, suggesting that it was a giant among comets and would become extremely brilliant. Brightness predictions ranged up to magnitude -10 — as bright as a first or last quarter moon — and some astronomers announced (as also has been the case with ISON) that Kohoutek could be “the comet of the century.” 

The news media took them at their word and ballyhooed the approach of a comet so bright it might be visible in broad daylight.

Sound familiar?

But Kohoutek turned out to be much fainter than the initial forecasts had indicated and, in fact, most people missed it entirely. The recriminations were nasty to say the least, with astronomers and the news media blaming each other and the public blaming both. Reporters shied away from comets thereafter, almost totally ignoring the truly spectacular Comet West in the spring of 1976. 

So remember this anecdote from 40 years ago as a disclaimer.

Meanwhile, Comet ISON is still on its way and has a seemingly bright future. Here at SPACE.com, we’ll be monitoring it all through this year and will provide periodic updates on how it is developing, so stay tuned! 

Editor’s note: If you have an amazing of Comet ISON or any other night sky view that you’d like to share for a possible story or image gallery, send photos, comments and your name and location to managing editor Tariq Malik at [email protected]

Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York’s Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for The New YorkTimes and other publications, and he is also an on-camera meteorologist for News 12 Westchester, New York. Follow SPACE.com on Twitter @Spacedotcom. We’re also on Facebook & Google+.

Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Karzai's U.S. visit a time for tough talk

The last time Presidents Obama and Karzai met was in May in Kabul, when they signed a pact regarding U.S. troop withdrawal.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Afghan President Karzai meeting with President Obama in Washington this week


• Felbab-Brown: Afghan politics are corrupt; army not ready for 2014 troop pullout


• She says Taliban, insurgents, splintered army, corrupt officials are all jockeying for power


• U.S. needs to commit to helping Afghan security, she says, and insist corruption be wiped out

Editor's note: Vanda Felbab-Brown is a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. Her latest book is "Aspiration and Ambivalence: Strategies and Realities of Counterinsurgency and State-Building in Afghanistan."

(CNN) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai is meeting this week with President Obama in Washington amid increasing ambivalence in the United States about what to do about the war in Afghanistan.

Americans are tired of the war. Too much blood and treasure has been spent. The White House is grappling with troop numbers for 2013 and with the nature and scope of any U.S. mission after 2014. With the persisting corruption and poor governance of the Afghan government and Karzai's fear that the United States is preparing to abandon him, the relationship between Kabul and Washington has steadily deteriorated.

As the United States radically reduces its mission in Afghanistan, it will leave behind a stalled and perilous security situation and a likely severe economic downturn. Many Afghans expect a collapse into civil war, and few see their political system as legitimate.

Karzai and Obama face thorny issues such as the stalled negotiations with the Taliban. Recently, Kabul has persuaded Pakistan to release some Taliban prisoners to jump-start the negotiations, relegating the United States to the back seat. Much to the displeasure of the International Security Assistance Force, the Afghan government also plans to release several hundred Taliban-linked prisoners, although any real momentum in the negotiations is yet to take place.

U.S. may remove all triips from Afghanistan after 2014

Vanda Felbab-Brown

Washington needs to be careful that negotiations are structured in a way that enhances Afghanistan's stability and is not merely a fig leaf for U.S. and NATO troop departure. Countering terrorism will be an important U.S. interest after 2014. The Taliban may have soured on al Qaeda, but fully breaking with the terror group is not in the Taliban's best interest. If negotiations give the insurgents de facto control of parts of the country, the Taliban will at best play it both ways: with the jihadists and with the United States.

Negotiations of a status-of-forces agreement after 2014 will also be on the table between Karzai and Obama. Immunity of U.S. soldiers from Afghan prosecution and control over detainees previously have been major sticking points, and any Afghan release of Taliban-linked prisoners will complicate that discussion.

Karzai has seemed determined to secure commitments from Washington to deliver military enablers until Afghan support forces have built up. The Afghan National Security Forces have improved but cannot function without international enablers -- in areas such as air support, medevac, intelligence and logistical assets and maintenance -- for several years to come. But Washington has signaled that it is contemplating very small troop levels after 2014, as low as 3,000. CNN reports that withdrawing all troops might even be considered.

Everyone is hedging their bets in light of the transition uncertainties and the real possibility of a major security meltdown after 2014. Afghan army commanders are leaking intelligence and weapons to insurgents; Afghan families are sending one son to join the army, one to the Taliban and one to the local warlord's militia.

With Afghan president's visit, nations' post-2014 future takes shape

Patronage networks pervade the Afghan forces, and a crucial question is whether they can avoid splintering along ethnic and patronage lines after 2014. If security forces do fall apart, the chances of Taliban control of large portions of the country and a civil war are much greater. Obama can use the summit to announce concrete measures -- such as providing enablers -- to demonstrate U.S. commitment to heading off a security meltdown. The United States and international security forces also need to strongly focus on countering the rifts within the Afghan army.

Assisting the Afghan army after 2014 is important. But even with better security, it is doubtful that Afghanistan can be stable without improvements in its government.

Afghanistan's political system is preoccupied with the 2014 elections. Corruption, serious crime, land theft and other usurpation of resources, nepotism, a lack of rule of law and exclusionary patronage networks afflict governance. Afghans crave accountability and justice and resent the current mafia-like rule. Whether the 2014 elections will usher in better leaders or trigger violent conflict is another huge question mark.

Emphasizing good governance, not sacrificing it to short-term military expediencies by embracing thuggish government officials, is as important as leaving Afghanistan in a measured and unrushed way -- one that doesn't jeopardize the fledgling institutional and security capacity that the country has managed to build up.

U.S. likely to keep thousands of troops in Afghanistan after NATO forces leave

Karzai has been deaf and blind to the reality that reducing corruption, improving governance and allowing for a more pluralistic political system are essential for Afghanistan's stability. His visit provides an opportunity to deliver the message again -- and strongly.

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The opinions in this commentary are solely those of Vanda Felbab-Brown.

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